May 1st Sell High MLB Trends
Here are some of the more intriguing stats at this point in the 2012 season. It is Tuesday, May 1st early in the morning as I write this piece with the hopes to give my readers a more insightful look at certain players and their progressions and tendencies. If you want to discuss any of these players in more depth hit me on twitter @Awies28 or email the show at mrfantasyfreak@yahoo.com
Edwin Encarnacion TOR 3B
He is currently hitting .322 with 8 home runs and 21 RBI's. E5, as he is known as, is playing out of his mind right now and I believe he is in line for a regression. In his home/road splits there is too much of a difference to ignore. In 44 road at bats he has totaled a .250 average with only one home run compared to his 46 home at bats where he has clubbed 7 home runs and a .391 average. His BABIP is close to .300 so I don't think that has anything to do with his hot start but against lefties this year he is only hitting .241 (29 at bats). Since 2008 he's only hit over .270 once (.272 in 2011) and his current ISO (isolated power) rate is .333 which is over 100 points higher than his career average. His previous high ISO power rate in a season was .238 (2010). At this pace if E5 plays 146 games (146 games played is his career high, 2008) then he will have 50 home runs. None of these trends make me feel good about him as the season progresses. I'm not buying Encarnacion to continue at this pace. Sell high at your own inclination.
Mike Aviles BOS SS
Aviles is playing at a high rate right now but the underlying statistics prove he is not going to keep this up. Mike is another guy with horrible road splits as he is only hitting .250 in road games this year for Boston. Aviles has never been a power guy and he already has 5 bombs so far this year (career high is 10 in 2008). His HR/FB rate is already double of what it was in 2008 (this year HR/FB rate is 16.7% and in 2008 it was 8.3%). He is bound for a regression mostly due to his current isolated power rate being over 80 points higher than his career average rate. I believe Aviles can keep his batting average around .300 but the power will drop as the season progresses. He's never had over 430 at bats in a season and he's never played in over 110 games so durability will become a factor as we enter the summer months. Sell high on Aviles and look to get in on Jose Reyes (struggling) or Alcides Escobar (underrated). Keep in mind Aviles is not Bobby Valentine's choice shortstop as the controversial manager openly admitted he preferred minor league prospect Jose Iglesias over Aviles in spring training.
Matt Moore TB SP
Moore gets the nod today (May 1st) on the bump for the Rays against the Mariners. He may very well come out and throw a gem but if he doesn't, expect me to tell you to sell high on Moore as the rookie is struggling. I want to write about him but because he is pitching later today the stats wouldn't be the same. Just keep in mind that Matt Moore is on the verge of my "Sell High" list.
Derek Jeter NYY SS
The Captain makes my sell high list for obvious reasons. He is fantasy gold right now because not only is he a big name Yankee player, he is also playing a prime fantasy position at shortstop. He is hitting .389 which includes his .449 average on the road. Here is what concerns me with Jeter; he only has 2 stolen base attempts this year with a .433 OBP to go along with his high average. I'd expect at least 5 or 6 more attempts with the amount of times he's been on base. This means he hasn't been receiving the green light from Girardi limiting his fantasy value. His average will regress due to his current career high BABIP of .421. He is hitting the ball on the ground at a 63.3% clip which is higher than his career 57.6% average. Jeter is also at an extremely high HR/FB rate of 30.8% which is 13.7% higher than his previous career best (2005). Basically Jeter is playing out of his mind but the counting numbers (home runs, stolen bases, RBI's, and runs) don't show the high increase that you would expect to continue with the statistical data. When his average begins to fall back to career norms the counting stats will take a major hit. I'm selling high.
Aaron Hill ARI 2B
Hill is hitting .266 this year with 4 homers and 2 stolen bases but he also has a career high 17.6% strikeout rate. In 2009 Hill crushed 36 home runs (158 games played) for the Toronto Blue Jays. That season he had an ISO power rate of .213 with a BABIP of .288 which led to his .286 batting average. That year he swung at a career high 51.1% of pitches seen. He swung at 74.2% of pitches in the strike zone in 2009 during his career best season but this year he is only swinging at 61.8% of pitches in the strike zone. This year he is showing a lot more patience by only swinging at 40.4% of pitches as a whole. He is seeing 4.33 pitches per at bat compared to his career average of 3.65 pitches per at bat. Hill is basically hitting the ball with the same authority as he did in 2009 (this year an ISO power rate of .215 and a .481 slugging percentage) but he just isn't swinging at the same volume as he did in 2009. I think his strikeout rate is a concern and therefore will begin to be overpowered as he just isn't as aggressive as the power numbers would appear. I'm selling high.
Cliff Lee PHI SP
I'm selling high on Cliff Lee because reports from Philadelphia say that Lee will not be activated from the DL when first eligible this Friday. In fact, Lee hasn't even thrown a bullpen session since being placed on the disabled list April 21st. Lee is dealing with an oblique injury which is always one of the more difficult, non-arm, injuries for a pitcher to return from. I think this issue may linger longer than first thought and I'm looking to deal him for the right price. If I have an open DL slot on my fantasy team I'd prefer to stash him there but if the right offer comes along I won't hesitate to move him.
Cody Ross BOS OF
Cody Ross has shown solid power numbers this year hitting 5 home runs in 74 at bats. Ross is at a career high HR/AB rate and I don't think that will continue. Ross currently has a high fantasy value in RBI's as he is tied for 12th in all of baseball. His best statistical value in terms of batting order would be in the 6th spot because this year, in 17 at bats, he is hitting .412 but when he has to hit 4th or 5th in the lineup he's at a .182 average. If you look at the Red Sox lineup, Ross may be forced to hit higher up (4th or 5th) due to injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis. Bobby V. has been moving him around in the lineup on a day-to-day basis. I'm sure that can't be good for his psyche. I'm selling high.
Tim Lincecum SF SP
If your new to the site and this is the first article of mine that your reading then you won't know how much I'm down on him this year. I think there is an injury to Lincecum that the Giants have not announced to the public (back or arm). I don't think he will throw over 150 innings this season and right now he is coming off an okay start so I think that this may be the best "sell high" time on Big Time Timmy Jim.
Carlos Beltran STL OF
I'm selling high on Beltran mostly for health reasons but there is some batting trends that concern me here as well. Beltran has his best HR/AB rate over the past 5 seasons at 15.6 and that is bound to regress (over the past 5 years he has a HR/AB rate of 26.4). Beltran missed 179 games in 2009 and 2010 combined with knee issues. Beltran's health is a concern as is the fact he hasn't hit a home run in the past 10 games after hitting 5 homers in his first 11 games this year. I'm selling high.
Chris Capuano LAD SP
Capuano has gotten off to a great start this year with a 3-0 record, 2.73 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He's also tallied 29 strikeouts in 29.2 innings pitched. I'm selling high on Chris because I don't think his opponents batting average will continue to stay this low. He currently has a .215 batting average against compared to his career .265 average. He also has a career best K/9 rate of 8.80 right now which would explain his outstanding 85.4% strand rate. His BABIP against is at .256 which would make it seem like he will regress as the year progresses. He also has a career high walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 right now which shows a lack of control. He is averaging under 6 innings thrown per start. I'm selling high on this Dodger starter.
Other Sell High Candidates:
Bartolo Colon OAK SP
Yoenis Cespedes OAK OF
Jason Kipnis CLE 2B
Wandy Rodriguez HOU SP
Austin Jackson DET OF
Mike Moustakes KC 3B
Jason Vargas SEA SP
I had a hard time putting Mike Aviles on this list as part of me wants to believe he's figured it out but I just don't see him having a 20/20 season. I also had a hard time with Derek Jeter but that's just because I'm a Yankee fan. For fantasy purposes I'm 100% backing my sell high on him.
Hit me on twitter @Awies28
Alex Wiesner
Here are some of the more intriguing stats at this point in the 2012 season. It is Tuesday, May 1st early in the morning as I write this piece with the hopes to give my readers a more insightful look at certain players and their progressions and tendencies. If you want to discuss any of these players in more depth hit me on twitter @Awies28 or email the show at mrfantasyfreak@yahoo.com
Edwin Encarnacion TOR 3B
He is currently hitting .322 with 8 home runs and 21 RBI's. E5, as he is known as, is playing out of his mind right now and I believe he is in line for a regression. In his home/road splits there is too much of a difference to ignore. In 44 road at bats he has totaled a .250 average with only one home run compared to his 46 home at bats where he has clubbed 7 home runs and a .391 average. His BABIP is close to .300 so I don't think that has anything to do with his hot start but against lefties this year he is only hitting .241 (29 at bats). Since 2008 he's only hit over .270 once (.272 in 2011) and his current ISO (isolated power) rate is .333 which is over 100 points higher than his career average. His previous high ISO power rate in a season was .238 (2010). At this pace if E5 plays 146 games (146 games played is his career high, 2008) then he will have 50 home runs. None of these trends make me feel good about him as the season progresses. I'm not buying Encarnacion to continue at this pace. Sell high at your own inclination.
Mike Aviles BOS SS
Aviles is playing at a high rate right now but the underlying statistics prove he is not going to keep this up. Mike is another guy with horrible road splits as he is only hitting .250 in road games this year for Boston. Aviles has never been a power guy and he already has 5 bombs so far this year (career high is 10 in 2008). His HR/FB rate is already double of what it was in 2008 (this year HR/FB rate is 16.7% and in 2008 it was 8.3%). He is bound for a regression mostly due to his current isolated power rate being over 80 points higher than his career average rate. I believe Aviles can keep his batting average around .300 but the power will drop as the season progresses. He's never had over 430 at bats in a season and he's never played in over 110 games so durability will become a factor as we enter the summer months. Sell high on Aviles and look to get in on Jose Reyes (struggling) or Alcides Escobar (underrated). Keep in mind Aviles is not Bobby Valentine's choice shortstop as the controversial manager openly admitted he preferred minor league prospect Jose Iglesias over Aviles in spring training.
Matt Moore TB SP
Moore gets the nod today (May 1st) on the bump for the Rays against the Mariners. He may very well come out and throw a gem but if he doesn't, expect me to tell you to sell high on Moore as the rookie is struggling. I want to write about him but because he is pitching later today the stats wouldn't be the same. Just keep in mind that Matt Moore is on the verge of my "Sell High" list.
Derek Jeter NYY SS
The Captain makes my sell high list for obvious reasons. He is fantasy gold right now because not only is he a big name Yankee player, he is also playing a prime fantasy position at shortstop. He is hitting .389 which includes his .449 average on the road. Here is what concerns me with Jeter; he only has 2 stolen base attempts this year with a .433 OBP to go along with his high average. I'd expect at least 5 or 6 more attempts with the amount of times he's been on base. This means he hasn't been receiving the green light from Girardi limiting his fantasy value. His average will regress due to his current career high BABIP of .421. He is hitting the ball on the ground at a 63.3% clip which is higher than his career 57.6% average. Jeter is also at an extremely high HR/FB rate of 30.8% which is 13.7% higher than his previous career best (2005). Basically Jeter is playing out of his mind but the counting numbers (home runs, stolen bases, RBI's, and runs) don't show the high increase that you would expect to continue with the statistical data. When his average begins to fall back to career norms the counting stats will take a major hit. I'm selling high.
Aaron Hill ARI 2B
Hill is hitting .266 this year with 4 homers and 2 stolen bases but he also has a career high 17.6% strikeout rate. In 2009 Hill crushed 36 home runs (158 games played) for the Toronto Blue Jays. That season he had an ISO power rate of .213 with a BABIP of .288 which led to his .286 batting average. That year he swung at a career high 51.1% of pitches seen. He swung at 74.2% of pitches in the strike zone in 2009 during his career best season but this year he is only swinging at 61.8% of pitches in the strike zone. This year he is showing a lot more patience by only swinging at 40.4% of pitches as a whole. He is seeing 4.33 pitches per at bat compared to his career average of 3.65 pitches per at bat. Hill is basically hitting the ball with the same authority as he did in 2009 (this year an ISO power rate of .215 and a .481 slugging percentage) but he just isn't swinging at the same volume as he did in 2009. I think his strikeout rate is a concern and therefore will begin to be overpowered as he just isn't as aggressive as the power numbers would appear. I'm selling high.
Cliff Lee PHI SP
I'm selling high on Cliff Lee because reports from Philadelphia say that Lee will not be activated from the DL when first eligible this Friday. In fact, Lee hasn't even thrown a bullpen session since being placed on the disabled list April 21st. Lee is dealing with an oblique injury which is always one of the more difficult, non-arm, injuries for a pitcher to return from. I think this issue may linger longer than first thought and I'm looking to deal him for the right price. If I have an open DL slot on my fantasy team I'd prefer to stash him there but if the right offer comes along I won't hesitate to move him.
Cody Ross BOS OF
Cody Ross has shown solid power numbers this year hitting 5 home runs in 74 at bats. Ross is at a career high HR/AB rate and I don't think that will continue. Ross currently has a high fantasy value in RBI's as he is tied for 12th in all of baseball. His best statistical value in terms of batting order would be in the 6th spot because this year, in 17 at bats, he is hitting .412 but when he has to hit 4th or 5th in the lineup he's at a .182 average. If you look at the Red Sox lineup, Ross may be forced to hit higher up (4th or 5th) due to injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis. Bobby V. has been moving him around in the lineup on a day-to-day basis. I'm sure that can't be good for his psyche. I'm selling high.
Tim Lincecum SF SP
If your new to the site and this is the first article of mine that your reading then you won't know how much I'm down on him this year. I think there is an injury to Lincecum that the Giants have not announced to the public (back or arm). I don't think he will throw over 150 innings this season and right now he is coming off an okay start so I think that this may be the best "sell high" time on Big Time Timmy Jim.
Carlos Beltran STL OF
I'm selling high on Beltran mostly for health reasons but there is some batting trends that concern me here as well. Beltran has his best HR/AB rate over the past 5 seasons at 15.6 and that is bound to regress (over the past 5 years he has a HR/AB rate of 26.4). Beltran missed 179 games in 2009 and 2010 combined with knee issues. Beltran's health is a concern as is the fact he hasn't hit a home run in the past 10 games after hitting 5 homers in his first 11 games this year. I'm selling high.
Chris Capuano LAD SP
Capuano has gotten off to a great start this year with a 3-0 record, 2.73 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He's also tallied 29 strikeouts in 29.2 innings pitched. I'm selling high on Chris because I don't think his opponents batting average will continue to stay this low. He currently has a .215 batting average against compared to his career .265 average. He also has a career best K/9 rate of 8.80 right now which would explain his outstanding 85.4% strand rate. His BABIP against is at .256 which would make it seem like he will regress as the year progresses. He also has a career high walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 right now which shows a lack of control. He is averaging under 6 innings thrown per start. I'm selling high on this Dodger starter.
Other Sell High Candidates:
Bartolo Colon OAK SP
Yoenis Cespedes OAK OF
Jason Kipnis CLE 2B
Wandy Rodriguez HOU SP
Austin Jackson DET OF
Mike Moustakes KC 3B
Jason Vargas SEA SP
I had a hard time putting Mike Aviles on this list as part of me wants to believe he's figured it out but I just don't see him having a 20/20 season. I also had a hard time with Derek Jeter but that's just because I'm a Yankee fan. For fantasy purposes I'm 100% backing my sell high on him.
Hit me on twitter @Awies28
Alex Wiesner
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