Each weekend leading up to the season will be an increasingly busy drafting weekend. I just drafted my work league Sunday night (8/19) and it was a blast. The next couple sundays I have 3 drafts in a single day. Needless to say I’m gaining some extra brownie points with my wife before I disappear into a fake world. 

With each weekend comes a new slate of preseason games for us gauge our interest players, good or bad. A couple catches or a couple runs by a given player could boost his ADP for any drafts that weekend. Here I take a look at players I feel are currently overvalued or undervalued.

Just because a guy is overvalued doesn’t mean I don’t like him. It usually means we all like a given player and want to get him before an opponent does. This sort of trend causes some players (who I would love to draft) go way higher than I would take them. Whether it’s a snake draft or auction the “price” becomes too steep.  Here’s a few guys I love... but am not “IN” love with. 

Matt Ryan - He is currently the cool kid of fake footballers everywhere. I actually feel like a Matt Ryan hipster to say “I liked Matt Ryan before Matt Ryan was cool.”

According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com Ryan’s ADP has risen from middle of the 7th round to beginning of the 5th round. Thanks but no thanks. Too high for me. 

Sure the guy has two of the best receivers in the game and Turner is going to see a smaller role individually but I don’t see Ryan’s numbers improving that much. They will still run the ball quite a bit whether it is in Turner’s or Rodger’s hands. 

If Ryan is there in the 6th round or later then start looking at him.

Let’s go back to his ungodly numbers from last year. He posted over 1600 yards with 16 TDs. Did you know that the 1600yd / 16TD stat line in a single season has only been done once before. That was by Randy Moss in his Vikings days. Again, Megatron is the best of all WRs. He should be the first WR taken. The thing is, guys coming off of career years tend to be a bit overvalued so that any regression, no matter how small, seems a bit disappointing. While it won’t be a crazy drop-off, don’t draft Megatron expecting a duplicate season of those numbers. 

The earliest I would draft Megatron is bottom of the first round, where my next pick comes back to me very quickly and I still have quality backs to choose from. 


Marshawn Lynch - Maybe this is a personal thing. I’ve never really liked Lynch all that much... but again this is a case of a guy coming off of a career year. In 2011 the Skittles aficionado had career highs in all major rushing categories: carries, yards, and touchdowns. Last year was the first year he posted double-digit touchdowns. He was a great player to own because he came quite cheap. 

Sure, he is the only constant in the Seattle offense going into the 2012 season. I just don’t see enough consistency in Lynch’s game to have confidence in him. In 2010 Lynch played in all 16 games between the Bills and Seahawks. In 12 games with the Seahawks alone, Lynch managed just 573 yards and 6 TDs. 

I tend to go for players with consistency. I really like to target veterans coming off of a down year. That is where great value is found. That is where championships are built. That is where the following guys come in: The Undervalued.

DeSean Jackson - Yeah, the guy loafed last year. He just came out and admitted he was protecting himself from injury to secure his paycheck. Plenty of guys have done that before but he is probably the first to admit it. He also states that this year he is giving it his all. He is determined and dedicated. He’s got the talent of a WR1. With an ADP of almost 6th round, I’ll take that value. This is simply a case of way too much talent sitting there later than you’d expect. Draft him with confidence. He will produce. 

On a side note I was going to have Michael Vick right here, but now he just left another preseason game with another brutal hit. Though his MRI came back negative with a diagnosis of a “rib contusion” 
The kicker? I just drafted him the other day in the 5th round of a 12 team PPR thinking that he was too good of a deal to pass on at that point. Now? His ADP will fall and rightly so. His future is currently clouded.

You better believe it. The biggest reason for my Pettigrew love is the fact that he is the only tight end not named Jimmy Graham to receive more targets than big bad Gronk in 2011. His ADP shows him going close to 8th round. That is a huge value for a guy getting the kind of targets of a tight end drafted 6 rounds earlier. 

Josh Freeman - He is currently being taken as the 17th QB. He has the talent to be at least startable in a 10 or 12 team league. True, he did have a bad year last year but who did he have to throw the ball to? The running game was non-existent. Just a bad combination for a quarterback. The front office got busy this offseason spending that extra cap room. They brought in Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark, and drafted highly talented running back Doug “Muscle Hamster” Martin out of Boise State. Since working with Freeman and building chemistry, Vincent Jackson said that Freeman has top 5 talent. With better passing options and better rushers to keep the defense honest, Freeman could see a considerable rebound from last year. If nothing else he could be a high quality #2 and trade piece for a league member whose QB is hurt... maybe a scared Vick owner... like myself. 


- @Ladd_Davies 
August 22nd, 2012
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