Which Atlanta receiver are you taking?

One team, two great wide receivers. Which one are you drafting? 

The Atlanta Falcons are in a great position offensively. Matt Ryan has two receivers that are top 10 talent, easily. At WR1 is the veteran and staple of the offense, Roddy White. Opposite him is the physical freak that is Julio Jones. Jones could arguably be the WR1 on at least half of the other teams in the NFL. 

One receiver could be on the backside of his prime while the other is rising.

Is White going to see a downturn in targets? 

Is Jones going to become central to the offense? 

Do last year’s stats tell us anything?

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Julio had 8 touchdowns his rookie season

Going into this writing Julio Jones’ ADP is 25th overall. Coming in as the sixth WR taken. 
Roddy White’s ADP is 27th overall, and the eigth WR off the board. These guys are going very close together.  

Let’s start with the top dog on the depth chart, Roddy White. 
In 2011 he had 100 catches, 1,296 yards, with 8 TDs.
The past two seasons White has caught 100+ balls and the three years before that he caught 83, 88, and 85 balls. Obviously a very consistent part in the offense. 

Last season only one other WR eclipsed 100 catches. That was one Wes Welker with 122. But get this, Roddy White did lead the league in targets. Matt Ryan threw to him 181 times. 


Wait wait, there’s more. Roddy White also led the league in targets in 2010 with 179 looks.

Oh, and the year before that... he came in second, behind Andre Johnson. 

It’s apparent that Matty Ice loves looking to White. Where Rowdy Roddy does most of his damage is in the red zone. That is where he converted 10 first downs and scored 7 of his 8 TDs in 2011. 
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Over the past two seasons Roddy White has 215 catches for 2,685 yards and 18 touchdowns

After leading the league for consecutive years in targets and having two straight 100 reception seasons, can Roddy White really regress that much? 

Now let’s take a look-see at the kid that starts opposite White; Julio Jones. 

Atlanta just about sold the farm to the Cleveland Browns to move up and grab the physically gifted receiver out of Alabama. Right out the gate the expectations were rather high for the rookie; and he posted a solid year. He brought in 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 TDs. In contrast to Roddy White leading the league in targets with 181, Julio Jones was thrown the ball 96 times (side note: same amount as Jordy Nelson). 

Julio made the most of his plays. He scored from all over the field. He had 3 TDs from Atlanta’s side of the 50 yard line. In short... the kid is explosive. 

As we just saw in his first game action of 2012, he posted 6 catches for 109 yards and a TD. 

Roddy White on the other hand did have 3 catches for 46 yards without a TD.

Mind you this is just the first preseason game. Last season there were a handful of games where White and Jones traded off going off. It is very likely it will be similar this year. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if White maintained his 85 - 100 receptions and Julio Jones boosts his numbers considerably due to the decline of Michael Turner in the offense and the maturation of Matt Ryan. This could very well become the reincarnate “Greatest Show on Turf.” Get your popcorn ready folks. 

As for me, I do love both receivers. I would just be skeptical of taking Julio Jones too high. I tend to lean more on a proven track record in those early rounds of a draft. This is why I would be more likely to take what could be a bit of a bargain on Roddy White than spend a premium on Julio Jones. Though in the end both could be well worth the investment regardless. 

-Ladd

Follow me on Twitter - @Ladd_Davies
August 10th, 2012
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